Fourteen years on from Dayton, the signs are not all good

Fourteen years after the Dayton Agreement (December 14, 1995), the Balkan Monitor results show that the two entities – the (Muslim-Croat) Federation and Republika Srpska – are still divided. The latest Gallup Balkan Monitor results show that over a third (35%) of Federation citizens now believe that Kosovo’s independence has set a precedent for Bosnia’s future; this is a 12 percentage point increase over 2008. The views of those in Republika Srpska have not changed in the past 12 months, with 43% resolutely thinking that Kosovo’s independence does indeed set such a precedent. So, 14 years on from the Dayton Agreement, almost 4 in 10 people in Bosnia (39%) foresee Bosnia and Herzegovina falling apart, along the lines of Serbia and Kosovo.

Interestingly, more people of both the Federation and Republika Srpska now feel that the international community has been helpful in the past 15-20 years. Almost half (48%) in the Federation feel that way (up three percentage points from 2008) and they are supported by 21% of those in Republika Srpska (+ 3 points). Perhaps this is linked to the feeling that Kosovo’s independence has indeed showed a way forward (or rather, two ways forward) for Bosnia and Herzegovina.

As for views about the individual international organisations, people from the Federation are now much more likely to have an opinion than they were in 2006. At that time, roughly one in five would not give an opinion (would not or could not say) on the subject. In 2009, the “don’t know” camp had decreased considerably and many more are now neutral about the international organisations. Overall, though, the EU is most liked, with 56% feeling friendly towards the Union. Hostility has increased towards NATO (13%, up seven percentage points from 2006) and the UN (9%, +5 points). As for the respondents in the Republika Srpska, they are much less friendly towards the international organisations. However, only NATO now attracts more hostility than in 2006 (38%, +3 points). Both the UN and the EU now attract more neutral opinions (51%, +11 points, and 42%, +4 points) respectively. It should also be noted that, as opposed to the Federation, the numbers in the Republika Srpska not giving an opinion (would not or could not say) has actually increased – up to roughly one in five for all three organisations.

Moving from Bosnia to the bigger picture of the Western Balkans, it is perhaps surprising – given the above figures for Bosnia & Herzegovina – that numbers feeling that the international organisations have been helpful in the past 15-20 years are decreasing for the region in total. Forty two percent of respondents across the region now think that the international organisations have been helpful, down four percentage points from 2008. In contrast, 15% feel their influence has been harmful – up 2 points from 2008.