Reaction to ICJ ruling on Kosovo predicted by GBM

Immediately after the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling on Kosovo’s independence, Serbia’s President Boris Tadic stated that Serbia would never recognise the unilaterally proclaimed independence of Kosovo. By doing so, Tadic was reiterating the views of Serbs in the 2009 GBM poll: 64% said that Serbia would never recognise Kosovo’s independence (up three percentage points from 2008).
In the same poll, the number of Kosovo Albanians thinking that independence had turned out to be a good thing dropped by 18 percentage points from its 93% figure in 2008. This could have been due to the economic situation in the country: 60% of Albanians in Kosovo had struggled to pay utility bills in the past year and only 3% of the unemployed felt they would be likely to get a job within 12 months.
Although Kosovo Albanians celebrated the ICJ ruling, it will undoubtedly take many years for the country to recover from the effects of the Balkan wars. Baroness Ashton, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, said the future of both Serbia and Kosovo lay in the European Union. Her comments on Kosovo were backed by 83% of Kosovo Albanians; in Serbia, however, only 50% of Serbs felt that joining the EU would be a good thing.
Following the ICJ ruling, Serbia said it would seek UN support for a negotiated compromise on Kosovo’s future; it could be that Serbia decides to put its opposition to Kosovo’s independence ahead of accession to the EU.